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Prediction for CME (2020-11-22T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-11-22T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16105/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption showing dimming to the NE and SW of AR 2783 starting around 2020-11-21T15:20Z. Rising field lines associated with this event are visible in SDO AIA 171/193 near S35E15. The leading edge of this CME is faintly visible in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery as early as 2020-11-22T01:36Z. The visibility of this CME in SOHO LASCO C2 is obscured by the emergence of a nearly simultaneous CME also associated with this eruption from AR 2783.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-11-26T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16119/1
Model Inputs:
2020-11-21T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=320.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2020-11-22T11:41Z
2020-11-22T01:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=270.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2020-11-22T16:20Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-11-26T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201122_114100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M SWAO) on 2020-11-23T21:47Z

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